Oil SpillRecently there have been many discussions on the effective role played by the 2nd Third Party Report (TPR-2), and by other news about the E-Cat, in the sharp fall in oil price observed in the world financial markets during the last two months.

I asked an Italian trader who in the past has invested in oil market, and who wants to remain anonymous, his opinion on the subject. Here’s his reply:

“In the last 10 years I have invested in oil more than in other commodities or financial indices/markets because I found the behavior of oil market much more predictable. This was until the end of 2011, when I was one of the first Italian investors to read about the E-Cat and to consider this technology a possible game-changer. I realized that sooner or later the oil price would collapse and then with regret I kept away.

In order to answer your inquiry, I had a quick glance at some public data and at analysis on the subject already published by others, and I found three clear ‘signatures’ on the charts – two of which are completely new, and one can be considered a ‘smoking gun’ – showing that the fall in oil price is closely related to the recent news about the E-Cat.

The three ‘signatures’ are well visible in the following pictures:

Fig. 1 – You can see, from the 10-year chart above, that normally on the long term there is a quite good correlation between the oil price and the stock market (here represented by the American S&P 500 Index), being the oil an increasingly scarce resource.

Oil_vs_StockComparison between the trends of the prices in oil and stock markets during the last 10 years.

I mean that the price of oil, in the last 2-3 decades, has always had a tendency to rise, except in times of great economic crisis (as in 2009, when collapsed). But at this time we are not in one of those periods, so the last sharp fall visible in the oil graph is due to an extremely powerful ‘exogenous’ factor. In the following graphs it will result quite clear what is this factor.

Fig. 2 – The more technical chart below, used by traders and first appeared on November 28 here in a post published in the Sifferkoll blog, shows in detail the strong correlation among some recent news regarding the E-Cat and the daily movements of the oil price.

Oil_E-Cat_Signature_1A technical chart of the Light Sweet Crude Oil futures (from the Sifferkoll blog, slightly modified).

We can see that the beginning of the fall in oil price coincides, on the graph, with the release date of the TPR-2, also known as ‘Lugano Report’, i.e. October 8, 2014. I have added this information on the chart because it was not provided in the original picture.

This is the most important event together with the article appeared the following day on the Elforsk’s website written by the CEO of such company, Magnus Oloffsson, and both are clearly responsible for the so-called ‘4 year channel breakout’.

We also see that the sharp cumulative fall of the oil price is, in reality, the sum of many sales on the oil market triggered also, in the following days, by the many other ‘minor’ news about the E-Cat appeared in the media and quite well illustrated on the chart by its author.

Fig.3 – As you made in your post on the E-Cat popularity, I used – to analyze the issue – Google Trends, which is very powerful tool, and I made a surprisingly discovery. I consider the latter a likely ‘smoking gun’ of the intriguing relationship between the most important recent news about the E-Cat and the sharp fall of oil price. It also gives us an idea of its strength.

If you type on Google Trends ‘Oil price‘ and, later, ‘E-Cat‘, you find (as clearly shown in the picture below prepared with your precious graphical help) that the number of searches for the first term is about 5 times greater, as I would expect, because searching that term are mostly investors, much more numerous than the fans who follow the E-Cat.

Google_Trends_Oil_4A comparison between the number of “Google Searches” for the terms “Oil chart” and “E-cat”.

Well, if now we compare the trends graphs relating to searches for these two terms – ‘Oil price’ and ‘E-Cat’ – in the last year, we find a clear spike in both the searches corresponding exactly to the same period: October 8-12. Since the fans of Rossi’s E-Cat are far fewer than world investors on oil, this means that investors were very careful to follow the release of the Second Third Party Report, announced long before, and they promptly sold”.

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13 comments

    • Mark

    • April 16, 2015

    • 8:11 PM

    • Reply

    I hope you don’t mind me posting on an old article, like this, but I wanted to let you know that some stuff that Rossi has said, recently, has some relevance to this article, and it’s not good. For a while, now, I have thinking that Rossi’s invention is important, but I have also been thinking that Rossi is a BAD person, on a moral level. His recent negative comments about the LENR community help to reinforce this, in my mind. This is from his blog:

    “As a matter of fact, I agree that LENR did have no effect at all on the price of oil: LENR ‘aficionados’ that say the price of oil is dropped for the LENR seem to me like a child that pees in the bed during the night and, when in the morning wakes up and from the window sees it’s raining, thinks it is his fault.”

    He doesn’t seem to think very highly of you, Vessy, or maybe he does not know that he is insulting you by saying that you are “like a child that pees in the bed during the night…” Anyway, maybe you want to address this with a new post.

    • Mark:
      I am sorry if somebody has been offended, but, obviously, I was joking, and when I joke I do it WITH you, not AT you.
      Speaking seriously, I think that hyperboles are not a positive thing for the issues one wants to uphold. If you say that your cat is a mouse killer, you do good for his reputation, but if you say that your cat has made a tiger run away from him because the tiger was afraid of him you make your cat ridiculous.
      Fluctuations in the oil market are due from geopolitical reasons, even beyond the limits of diplomacy, and to the ratio between offer and demand. In the USA the fracking technology has increased enormously the offer of hydrocarbons and the ratio between offer and demand is dramatically changed. This is why the oil price is fallen. The USA, former importer of oil, became potential exporter of oil.
      By the way: in a former comment I made on the same issue in this blog I wrote a typo that you rightly corrected: a gallon, obviously, is not 0.95 liter, but it is 3.78 liters, as it is well known: thank you for correcting my typo.
      Warm Regards,
      Andrea Rossi

        • Mark

        • April 17, 2015

        • 7:33 PM

        • Reply

        Huh? I never corrected any typos. There must be someone else posting under the name Mark on the Rossi blog. I have never, not even once, posted on the Rossi blog. Well, I don’t know if you are the real Andrea Rossi, or not, (maybe Vessy knows) but, assuming that you are the real Rossi, I still see you calling Vessy, and everybody else who disagrees with you “ridiculous.” You say that you are doing it in a joking way. Now that you know that some people are really getting offended, I hope that you will stop making such jokes, in the future.

  1. There is one thing that I do not understand. I live and work in the USA where, obviously, I drive my car. The price of gasoline when the price of oil was 80 $/ barrel was 4 $ /Gallon ( 1 gal = circa 0.95 liter), now, with the oil at 60 $/barrel, the price of gasoline at the pump is 2.7 $/Gal.
    Basically the depreciation of gasoline in the USA is proportional to the depreciation of the oil as a commodity. In Italy it is not so. This is an invisible tax that I think is not put in the right evidence.
    It is an enormous amount of money that is not very much clear where goes. Perhaps, when so big amount of money of the taxpayer is retained, a clear explication what it is spent for should be proper.
    Thank you for the hospitality,
    A.R.

      • Luca

      • December 22, 2014

      • 1:31 PM

      • Reply

      Yes Andrea!
      Indeed today were confiscated 160 petrol stations related to the Camorra.
      Will there be a connection? Maybe not, but what you say about taxes and the enormous round of money “stolen” Italians is an obvious anomaly.
      But no one says anything ……

      • Mark Möschl

      • January 16, 2015

      • 2:46 PM

      • Reply

      Hi Andrea

      a Gallon is not 0,95 Liter, it is 3,7854 Liters !
      Just to Show the Europeans what the real gasoline Price in USA is like 😉
      Less than a US-Buck per Liter, it is almost double Price here in EU 🙁

    • luca

    • December 18, 2014

    • 11:10 PM

    • Reply

    Grande Andrea,
    Non ne perde uno di articolo…..
    Ha veramente mille risorse. Non riesco a capacitarmi.
    Unica spiegazione è che,essendo uomo di “lago” (e Lui sa cosa voglio dire),
    è di tempra e indole superiore….. :-)))))

  2. Very surprising and interesting interview.
    Brava, Vessela!
    Andrea Rossi

    • Luca

    • December 17, 2014

    • 3:20 PM

    • Reply

    L’analisi proposta in questo articolo è verosimile ma temo che i motivi veri siano da ricercare altrove. Forse un regolamento di conti tra USA/Russia/Middle est Countries.
    Dalle notizie che si leggono in rete a me viene in mente che gli USA, con l’aiuto dei paesi arabi amici (Saudi Arabia, Kwait, EAU, Katar….) per farla pagare sia alla Russia di Putin per l’affare Ucraina che al Venezuela per non sottostare al cartello della oil company americane, stanno affossando il prezzo del barile e creare tensione sui tutti i mercati mondiali.
    A questo si aggiunga che Cina e India sono (pur conservando un largo margine positivo) in leggero calo del PIL……e il gioco è fatto.
    Anche me piacerebbe che fossero le notizie sull’ECAT a fare questo gioco ma non credo che il mondo finanziario che conta, stiano prendendo sul serio il progetto di Rossi & C.(ammesso che ne conoscano l’esistenza).
    Bisogna se mai aspettarsi, dopo che l’ECAT sarà una realtà scientifica/commerciale indiscutibile, un’impennata dei prezzi petroliferi. A quel punto vedrete che ci sarà un unico cartello dei produttori che, vedendosi alla fine dei loro guadagni, giocheranno al rialzo sino a quando l’ECAT & C. diventeranno commerciabili…..
    Non è ancora finito il nostro supplizio di consumatori. Ci aspettano altre battaglie.
    Buone feste a tutti.

    • …Non è ancora finito il nostro supplizio di consumatori.

      Ahimé, questo purtroppo è un fatto in Italia, basta vedere il prezzo della benzina, che nonostante tutto non è calato molto… :-O

      Buone Feste anche a te! 🙂

      • Patricia Klein

      • December 30, 2014

      • 11:03 AM

      • Reply

      Hi Luca

      I was very curious also about the drop in oil price and thought perhaps it was to due to some complex geo-political things, perhaps to stop IS from selling oil on the black market. But when I was looking at some materials, I think new energies are a reality for the companies. Whole economies are based on oil, so the transition needs to reward everyone. But I believe the transition is coming. I like the NASA PDF below, I found it fascinating.

      Frankly I cannot believe I stumbled upon this blog – is that really THE Andrea Rossi…?

      http://www.sifferkoll.se/sifferkoll/
      nari.arc.nasa.gov/node/259
      nari.arc.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/Wells_TM2014-218283 Low Energy Nuclear Reaction Aircraft_0.pdf

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